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054 What do the Mule, Psychohistory, the Internet waking up, and Kirinyaga have in common. I somehow referred to the MPEG Mule when I wrote “Another thirty years await MPEG, if some mindless industry elements will not get in the way”. First broadcast: 17 June 1973. The Second half of the book depicts the Rise of the Mule. The Mule also suffers from megalomania, an inferiority complex and “an intensely psychopathic paranoia,” which may strike some readers today as uncomfortably familiar. What will then be the eventual fate of the MPEG Mule? This was the reason for his setting up of the Foundation. I actually begin my popular book War and Peace and War by referring to Hari Seldon and his prediction of the collapse of the Galactic Empire. He never tellsus that psychohistory works. Foundation Series, the Science Fiction series by Isaac Asimov. One of the greatest conquerors the galaxy has ever seen, he is a mentalic who has the ability to reach into the minds of others and “adjust” their emotions, individually or en masse , using this capability to forcibly enlist them to his cause. For this reason his empire does not last long after his death. The Mule was sort of a weird counter-balance to Occam's Razor - spontaneous complexity if you like. The Mule – the ultimate outsider – has exploited the confusion and brought order to everybody’s satisfaction if not to the forces of the Foundation who have been .designing their comeback. 054 What do the Mule, Psychohistory, the Internet waking up, and Kirinyaga have in common. Here the chaos reigned supreme with a large and growing number of formats for sound and television, real time and stored. The Mule is a fictional character from Isaac Asimov‘s Foundation series. In the story, the Mule manages to temporarily overwhelm the weaker steering technologies of the Second Foundation. Even the period of his greatest renown is known to us chiefly through the eyes of his antagonists and, principally, through those of a young bride.. His attempts to find the Second Foundation through manipulation of Ebling Mis, though, ended up being stymied in the last second thanks to Bayta, who had realized who he was and killed Mis before he could speak up. Asimov created the Mule as someone outside his system, and seemingly impervious to the laws of psychohistory. It is an element of that fictional society whose appearance Hari Seldon’s psychohistory could not predict. Isaac Asimov's novel, currently being adapted into an Apple TV+ series, builds its story around the futuristic science of psychohistory. It is an element of that fictional society whose appearance Hari Seldon’s psychohistory could not predict. The forces of the MPEG Mule have clearly triumphed over the forces of darkness and anarchy. Can we improve MPEG standards’ success rate? At the end of part three I wrote these words: ... Seldon’s science of psychohistory was outstanding at predicting the behavior of large populations but worthless in trying to predict what an individual might do. All this according  to a series of steps that could not individually be predicted, but whose general outcome could. April 2017; DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35217.74089 The Mule ended up leaving, allowing the Darells to go untouched on the basis of their friendship. While statistical approaches might indeed be part of our own mathematics in predicting larger societal phase changes, in the end our own efforts are saved by self-similarity. The Mule was born on the mentalic planet Gaia within Sayshell Sector, where he was regarded as a criminal for his willingness to use his mental powers to manipulate people. The failure of psychohistory is not strange in itself. Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire.It was first introduced in the four short stories (1942–1944) which would later be collected as the 1951 novel Foundation. How Psychohistory as written differs from "real life" solutions, is that one strong leader can influence people in a direction he, or she, wants, which would skew a mathematical prophecy which cannot predict a wild card influence like one person existing. The Mule is a Grey Champion-like character rising to power at a crucial time in history as the disruptive factor to the best-laid plans of over-confident elitists. De film is gebaseerd op het leven van Leo Sharp, een Tweede Wereldoorlog-veteraan die als tachtiger drugsdealer werd voor het Sinaloakartel. The Mule is een Amerikaans misdaaddrama uit 2018 onder regie van Clint Eastwood, die eveneens de hoofdrol vertolkt. Play Episode Pause Episode. The only aspect of the Mule which was not blatantly farcical were his eyes, which were described as deep brown and perpetually sad. An introduction to the MPAI-AIF Call for Technologies, MPAI issues a Call for Technologies supporting its AI Framework standard. One of the greatest conquerors the galaxy has ever seen, he is a mentalic who has the ability to reach into the minds of others and “adjust” their emotions, individually or en … It is an element of that fictional society whose appearance Hari Seldon’s psychohistory could not predict. CONNECT. The Mule used his mental powers to disrupt Seldon’s plan by invalidating his assumption no single individual could have a quantifiable impact on historical trends predicted by his theory of psychohistory. Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire.It was first introduced in the five short stories (1942–1944) which would later be collected as the 1951 novel Foundation. Psychohistory (fictional) From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search For the study of the psychological motivation of historical and current events, see psychohistory. Could Psychohistory actually work? Mutant like Mule, however, breaks down the assumptions. In “Foundation”, Hari Seldon had anticipated a number of “crises”. The answer might seem to be trivially true-- the Foundation does succeed, doesn't it, and Asimov has set it up so psychohistory is the reason why-- or trivially false, because of the Mule. The Mule, as he is called, nearly breaks the Seldon model, until those who rediscovered psychohistory rebuild the models and determine the appropriate strategy to ensure that the Foundation civilization gets back on its long-cycle path back toward peace and stability. The Mule was a powerful mentalic mutant, warlord, and conqueror who posed the greatest threat to the Seldon Plan. This, at the same time, allowed him to have Kalgan declare war on the First Foundation, conquering both it and the Independent Traders' planets. I've argued that really Hari Seldon did very badly: psychohistory failed to predict two galaxy-upending, psychohistory-derailing developments within three centuries that depended on individuals: the Mule, and himself. If there had been a Hari Seldon of the media industry he could have applied his psychohistory. In his account of psychohistory, Asimov gestures towards good answers to the obvious questions, with suggestive motifs and historical vignettes that point to what might be important in a real science of psychohistory. Thus his joints, such as elbows, seemed to jut out from his diminutive musculature. Praxeology, Psychohistory, Economics. Table  1 – Media-related standards committees (1980’s). The Mule was not expected to appear, but did. This allowed him to meet Han Pritcher, but the first to encounter him were Toran and Bayta Darell, whom he ended joining in their travels. Now, in the Foundation novels themselves, the only way mentioned to kick things off track is massive psychic powers, but imagine, for a moment, a Yang Wen-li or a Reinhard von Lohengramm at the head of one of the Foundation's enemies, able to do so much more damage … Since we're talking psychohistory here, Hari Seldon's Plan broke down under the chaos of the Mule. April 18, 2012 at 9:40 am Back in 1970 when I entered Harvard, the university introduced a “Freshman Seminar” program where up to ten freshman met weekly with a senior faculty member to study and discuss a subject outside the normal set of academic disciplines. To repair the damage the Mule inflicts, the Second Foundation deploys a plan which turns upon individual reactions. But if Seldon's Plan is to succeed, the Second Foundation must survive — yet it must be seen to be wiped out. Table 1 shows just those at the international level, but others popped up at regional, national and industry level. Pingback: Steve Jobs is The Mule. He exclaims to Bayta that in his rush to 'flee' the Mule, that he had left his behind. His acute telepathic ability to modify the emotions of human beings derailed one of the basic assumptions of Hari Seldon's psychohistory - that, in general, the responses of human populations to given stimuli will remain the same. In the process of negotiations, the Clown/Mule is given a Visi-Sonor, by Ebling Mis with which to amuse himself. I read Foundation some 35 years ago, and it left quite an impression. Illustration of the Mule. The novella is like a paean to the idea of an all-encompassing predictive theory of psychohistory. The flesh of the rest of the Mule's face seems stretched across his skull. However, his plans to create a new Empire were kept in check by his fear of the Second Foundation, which led him to organizing multiple expeditions to seek it. From there he managed to take over the planet Kalgan by converting the then warlord of Kalgan. The Mule gaat over Earl Stone een hoogbejaarde bloemenkweker die een getroubleerde verhouding met zijn familie heeft. Featured in Isaac Asimov’s great Foundation Trilogy, the Mule doesn’t sound like such a terrible guy, just another would be conqueror that the Foundation has to beat, but quickly do the characters realize that the Mule is no push over, and more than that, is unseen. The discontinuity of digital technologies, The MPEG drive to immersive visual experiences, There is more to say about MPEG standards, More standards – more successes – more failures, Thirty years of audio coding and counting, Compression standards and quality go hand in hand, Compression standards for the data industries, The MPEG machine is ready to start (again), Compression – the technology for the digital age. Billions of people were lured, without complaint but with joy, into the new world. The idea of psychohistory is that large numbers of people are capable of statistical treatment - even important people are unable to overcome the statistical effects of large numbers of common people. Very often the only merit of guy who made the invention was that he put together a process whose elements were either known or already “floating in the air”. He manipulates the constables and guards into believing he is indeed the escaped 'clown', but at this early stage, neither Toran or Bayta are aware of his psychomanipulative powers. The Mule, as he is called, nearly breaks the Seldon model, until those who rediscovered psychohistory rebuild the models and determine the appropriate strategy to ensure that the Foundation civilization gets back on its long-cycle path back toward peace and stability. In the Media Empire yhe Foundation materialised as a growing number of standards organisations who Tried to keep some order in the field. « Psychohistory. The earlier commercial empire of the fallen Foundation had been diverse and loosely knit, despite the impalpable backing of the predictions of Psychohistory. I am often asked by people who first encounter Cliodynamics whether I read Isaac Asimov’s Foundation, and what is the relationship between Asimov’s Psychohistory and Cliodynamics. In the Foundation, the Mule is eventually wiped out, not because his powers disappear but because others learned some of the methods of the Mule and applied them for their own sake, i.e. Hamlet in Gothenburg: one or two ad hoc groups? Asimov is actually rather more subtle than that, however. The failure of psychohistory is not strange in itself. Mutant like Mule, however, breaks down the assumptions. CONNECT Welcome to SciFi thoughts where for a few short minutes I’ll tease and tantalize your mind with this genre from the future. It is an element of that fictional society whose appearance Hari Seldon’s psychohistory could not predict. The sixth expedition, led by Bail Channis (who turns out to be a Second Foundation agent) appears to be successful, but in fact it is all a trap created by the First Speaker of the Second Foundation, who defeats the Mule and alters his mind, making end his quest and spend the last years of his life as a benevolent dictator, eventually dying a premature death resulting from his mutation. One can still ask, is something like psychohistory even possible? Posted on September 3, 2012 by Peter Turchin. By some means he managed to escape the planet at a young age and use the innate powers of its inhabitants against the Galaxy. "The Mule" in Asimov's Foundation trilogy is one of the most enigmatic and important aspects of / threats to psychohistory. In this blog Leonardo records his thoughts, shares his experiences, reports his achievements and announces his plans (in italics). In a sequence of strikes  the MPEG Mule conquered  the media Empire: interactive video on compact disc, portable music, digital audio broadcasting, digital televisions, audio and video on the internet, file format, common encryption, IP-based television, 3D Audio, streaming on the unreliable internet and more. Taking him to their ship, the trio meets Captain Han Pritcher, a military spy for the Foundation and member of the Democratic Resistance, who explains how much trouble the Foundation is in: the Mule is a Mutant who possesses great power, putting him outside of Psychohistory's predictive ability and making him a threat to Seldon's Plan. The third is the MPEG data compression – especially media – group I have been writing about for some time on this blog. The Era of Deviations, at the rise of the Mule, produced deviations in the Seldon Plan in excess of .5 through 10 sigmas, and the resolution of this period required a full century of labour on the part of the Second Foundation to return the Galaxy to the Plan. By some means he managed to escape the planet at a young age and use the innate powers of its inhabitants against the Galaxy. Praxeology, Psychohistory, Economics Enrico Mattia Salonia∗ Abstract The aim of this study is to attain a definition of the epistemological foundation of "Psychohistory" which the American novelist Isaac Asimov imagined and described as a "science" during the narration set in … The first element is the Mule, a character of the trilogy, a mutant that quickly conquers the Galactic Empire with the power of his mental capabilities. 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